EARTHQUAKE CLOUDS AND
SHORT TERM PREDICTION
- August 16, 2016 -
We have just published a book: Earthquake Vapor Model & Precise Prediction. This model is an important discovery to understand various puzzles. For example, a cloud appeared from and insisted at Bam, Iran like smoke for 26 hour on Dec.20~21, 2003. Meteorology could not explain this cloud, while Shou predicted an earthquake of magnitude ≥5.5 in the vapor source within 60 days to the public at UTC 0:58 on Dec.25. On the next day, an M6.8 quake at Bam claimed his success. This quake was the only one in the predicted area and magnitude windows in the historical record of about 3,000 years. Many witnesses congratulated this success. The United Nations published “Bam Earthquake Prediction & Space Technology” in its 2004 yearbook (Seminars of the United Nations Programme on Space Applications 16), and shared this book to its all member states in Vienna in early 2005.
Investigating temperatures around and during a vapor eruption and its following quake, Shou found the second eruption and the second temperature peak a few days before a quake. Thus, a quake can be predicted within a week: 3 days after an eruption, or another 3 days after the second eruption. Shou also found surface temperatures ≥100oC (see the book) during an eruption, and an artificial limitation of the highest temperature for satellite image (see the book). If we replace this limitation, we should be able to pinpoint at an impending epicenter in hot surrounding. In 2011, Shou published “Method of precise earthquake prediction and prevention of mysterious air and sea accidents” (Patent US 08068985B).
This book evaluates a set of Shou’s 63 independent predictions, verified by the USGS, with a Bayesian method. Assuming earthquake data of the USGS without error and a quake at a point without area, this set has an accuracy of 60% and a P-value of 0.001. Thus, this set is very significant in statistics. Error Analysis shows all mistakes of this set coming from problems of satellite data, earthquake data and a lack of Shou’s experience as a pioneer, i.e. the vapor itself has no false warming. Investing all quakes of death toll more than 10,000 since 1990 shows all the quakes having vapors, i.e. the vapor has no miss. Those problems also reduced scores of correct predictions. Therefore, the P-value of 0.001 only represents Shou’s skill with the vapor limited by the problems. The skill of the vapor itself is extraordinary.
This book reveals many rare phenomena, e.g. a gear-shaped hurricane cloud (see the book) over Dominican Republic on Aug. 22, 2003 while encountering an erupting vapor, during which, the Puerto Plata airport recorded a pulse temperature increase of 10oC in 10 min in the evening. Afterward, an M6.5 quake hit nearby. The book discusses various precursors, such as foreshock, radon, etc. and concludes their common problem: no model in theory and no reliable prediction in practice. The book mentions serious problems of the Plate Theory and its disciples. For instance, moving the South America to best match the Africa in map by computer shows an overlap of 75,000 km2 (see the book), so the two continents could not once joint.
The book copies some of Shou’s predictions, witnessed by scientists or the USGS, for major quakes against a rumor: “nor any other scientists have ever predicted a major earthquake”. Skeptics are welcome to simulate those predictions with the same area, the same magnitude and the same span of time in the future to check how much success a simulation has.
Although the United Nations have shared the Earthquake Vapor Model to its all member states since early 2005, major people may still not know it. For example, the vapor of the L’Aquila earthquake was erupting southwestward against the normal wind on Mar. 30~31, 2009 (see the book) when Rome reached the highest daily maximum temperature on the same days in 17 years from 1997 to 2013. Coincidently, De Bernardinis predicted “No danger” on Mar. 31. We sympathize with the victims, but if the Italians had learned a little about the vapor, neither De Bernardinis, nor the victims would have believed “No danger”.
This book adopts high coincidence among no-meteorological cloud, rare earthquake, unique reference, abnormal temperature, and reliable prediction to describe the model, so it should be understandable. This book has
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Zhonghao Shou & Yan Fang
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